Genocide and Genocidal Terror: From post disaster emergency response 
to  prediction and prevention: the Need for a Public Health Approach

Richter ED and Berman T.

Hebrew University Hadassah School of Public Health and Community 
Medicine Jerusalem

Background and Case for Action: Mass killing and destruction or 
genocidal terror targeted at  a group, tribe, nation, or population 
defined by a common ethnic, religious, racial or political trait  by 
another, has been the ranking cause  of violent death in the 20th 
and  21st centuries.  Genocide remains the largest and most 
horrifying  of modern public health epidemic  scenarios. The fact 
that genocides are predictable implies that they are preventable. 
Currently, there is no formal international system for surveillance, 
reporting or responding to early predictors of genocide and 
intervention targeted at the preventable predictors  similar to 
those for epidemics of infectious disease, chemical disasters or 
natural disasters. There is a need, in particular, for testing the 
efficacy of international surveillance systems targeted at the Early 
Warning Signs (EWS) of genocide.



Methods: We developed time lines that examine the interval between 
occurrence of   early warning signs of past genocides and reporting 
(t1) and between reporting and effective response (t2)



Results:  During the genocides in Rwanda, Yugoslavia, Cambodia and 
Darfur, there were  short intervals (days to weeks) between first 
warning signs and first reports , (t1) but much longer intervals 
between first reports and effective response (t2). Blatant and 
subtle incitement and hate language in the media and apologetic 
narratives by scientific and intellectual elites are usually 
prominent detectable early warning signs.   Barriers to reporting by 
outsiders include repression and suppression biases, disbelief, 
effectiveness of concealment, sociologic narratives or agendas, and 
political agendas which excuse or explain incitement  in terms of 
real or imagined past grievances or injustices, or unspecified root 
causes.  The time lines show that the international political order 
in general  has either ignored or been late in responding not only 
to political terror, mass violence, democide and genocide, but also 
to their warning signs, notably incitement and definable measures of 
persecution.  International activities have been restricted to 
post-event emergency response to the adverse health impacts from 
genocidal   activities and terror, or the use of armed force against 
terror.



Conclusions: Genocide is both predictable and preventable. We call 
for an international system for online surveillance and detection of 
early warning signs such as incitement and hate- language in texts 
and official media, and for a system of mandatory reporting, 
censure, and sanctions and defined thresholds for intervention 
during the pro-dromal period of  genocide. Online surveillance 
should be modeled after international networks for surveillance and 
reporting of epidemic disease, and should be incorporated into 
international public health networks for violence prevention. 
Interventions include publicity, sanctions, criminalization and 
definable thresholds for the use of armed force. Such a surveillance 
system will shorten the response and reaction time and trigger 
appropriate interventions to genocide and mass violence.